A Democratic victory in a state special election in President Donald Trump’s backyard is the latest sign that Democrats are on track to take back the House of Representatives in November, according to CNN’s resident data guru.
Democrat Emily Gregory beat Republican Jon Maples 51 percent to 49 percent to represent parts of West Palm Beach—including Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago estate—in the Florida state House.
Trump, who had endorsed Maples and voted by mail in the election, won the district in 2024 by 11 points. Gregory’s predecessor, state Rep. Mike Caruso, had won by 19 points before resigning to become county clerk and comptroller.
Although Republicans still have a supermajority in the Florida state legislature, Gregory’s victory is part of a nationwide trend that spells disaster for Republicans in the midterms, CNN data analyst Harry Enten told host Erin Burnett on Tuesday night, when 99 percent of the ballots had been counted.
“What is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay a Mar-a-Lago,” he said. “It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.”
In dozens of special elections nationwide at both the state and national level, there’s been a double-digit shift on average toward Democrats compared to the 2024 baseline, Enten said.
“Historically speaking, special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections,” he said.
Going back to the 2006 cycle, every time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives, he added.
Tuesday’s blue wave was also felt in Tampa Bay, where Democrat Brian Nathan defeated Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow, flipping a red seat in a special election for the Florida state Senate.
Democrats have now flipped 29 state seats since Trump’s election, including the Florida seat in Tuesday’s special election. Republicans have flipped zero.
Enten also pointed out that Trump voted by mail in Tuesday’s special election despite waging war on mail-in ballots.
The president has been demanding that the Senate abolish the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act, which restricts most voting by mail and requires voters to prove their citizenship.
The law threatens to disenfranchise millions of Americans, including women who changed their last names when they got married, who don’t have the necessary documents readily available.
The president was physically present at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend, when early in-person voting was open.
The White House told the Daily Beast in a statement that Trump supports “commonsense” exceptions to proposed restrictions on voting by mail, including for travel and illness.
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